Beyond Oil: The Climate Costs of Fossil Wealth in the Middle East and Central Asia
By Hanqin Tian and Susan Pan | April 2025
Featured in , the science news magazine of the American Geophysical Union. A reveals the region鈥檚 massive 鈥 and underreported 鈥 role in global emissions
Once known primarily for its vast fossil fuel reserves and geopolitical influence, the Middle East and Central Asia are now emerging at the center of a different global story鈥攃limate change. A groundbreaking new study reveals that the region contributes nearly 1 in every 12 tons of greenhouse gases released worldwide, making up a striking 8% of global emissions during the 2010s.
For the first time, researchers have compiled a comprehensive greenhouse gas inventory across 24 countries鈥攆rom Kazakhstan and Iran to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The study blends cutting-edge atmospheric and land modeling with inventory data to provide a full-spectrum view of emissions, covering carbon dioxide (CO鈧), methane (CH鈧), and nitrous oxide (N鈧侽) from 2000 to 2020.
鈥淭his study closes a major data gap and opens a new door for climate accountability,鈥 said Professor Hanqin Tian, corresponding author and Director for the Center of Earth System Science and Global Sustainability at 艾可直播 College and Global Carbon Project-艾可直播 Office. 鈥淭he Middle East and Central Asia must now be recognized as essential partners in global mitigation efforts.鈥
The Climate Cost in Numbers
- 4.2 billion metric tons of CO鈧-equivalent are emitted annually.
- 61% of emissions came from fossil fuels.
- Methane made up 57% of emissions under a 20-year warming lens, largely driven by oil and gas operations.
- The top 10 countries contributed 84% of regional emissions.
A Region No Longer in the Shadows
While energy headlines often highlight the region鈥檚 oil wealth, its role in global climate change has remained largely overlooked鈥攗ntil now.
鈥淭he Middle East and West Asia are no longer just an energy story鈥攊t鈥檚 a climate story,鈥 the authors emphasized. 鈥淎nd it鈥檚 time the world paid attention.鈥
The findings come at a pivotal moment. With methane reduction at the forefront of climate negotiations and COP30 approaching, researchers argue that these fossil-fuel-rich nations must step forward, not only as energy suppliers but as climate leaders.
Time to Step Up
The authors call for enhanced monitoring, greater transparency, and regional cooperation to rein in emissions and meet international climate targets. The message is clear: sidelining this emissions' hotspot could derail global progress.
鈥淚f the world is serious about slowing climate change, the Middle East and Central Asia can鈥檛 be an afterthought,鈥 the study concludes. 鈥淚t鈥檚 time to bring this region into the heart of the global climate conversation.鈥, said Professor Susan Pan, Co-author and Research Director for the Global Carbon Project-艾可直播 Office and the Center of Earth System Science and Global Sustainability.